Mulligans in Commander: when to keep and when to ship a hand

Your opening seven decides more Commander games than any single card in your deck. Keep a hand that can't make its land drops and you spend the first five turns watching. Throw away a fine hand out of nerves and you start a card down for no reason. This guide covers the actual mulligan rules, what a keepable hand looks like, and the odds behind the close calls.

How a mulligan works

Magic uses the London mulligan (Comprehensive Rules 103.5). To take a mulligan, you:

1. Shuffle your hand back into your library.
2. Draw a new hand of seven cards.
3. Put a number of cards from that hand on the bottom of your library, in any order, equal to the number of times you've taken a mulligan.

You always see seven fresh cards and then choose which ones to give up. That's a big improvement on older systems, where you simply drew fewer cards, because you can bottom the cards you need least.

The free first mulligan

In any multiplayer game, which includes a normal three- or four-player Commander pod, the first mulligan is free. Rule 103.5c says the first mulligan you take doesn't count toward the number of cards you put on the bottom. Your second mulligan costs one card, your third costs two, and so on.

Mulligans taken	Cards you draw	Cards you put on the bottom	Hand you keep
0 (keep)	7	0	7
1	7	0	7
2	7	1	6
3	7	2	5

This isn't a house rule. It's in the official rules for every multiplayer game. A two-player Commander game is not multiplayer, so by the rules the first mulligan there costs a card like any other. Plenty of one-on-one players allow a free one anyway; just agree on it before you shuffle.

Who decides first

Mulligans happen in rounds. The starting player declares first whether they'll keep or mulligan, then each other player does the same in turn order. Once everyone has declared, all the players who chose to mulligan do it at the same time, then the process repeats for anyone who still wants to. Once you keep, you're done: you can't change your mind after seeing someone else's decision.

Does the first player draw?

Under the Comprehensive Rules, the starting player skips their first draw only in a two-player game (rule 103.8a). In other multiplayer games, including standard Commander pods, no one skips their first draw (rule 103.8c). Many casual tables still have the first player skip the draw to offset the advantage of going first. It's a common habit, so ask. The odds below show both cases, because it changes how risky a two-land hand is.

What a keepable hand looks like

Ask three questions about any seven:

• Can I make my land drops? You want to play a land on each of your first three turns, and ideally the fourth. Two lands is usually the minimum, three is comfortable, and cheap ramp counts toward the total.
• Can I cast my spells? Check colors, not just land count. Two Forests won't cast your blue card draw.
• Does it do something by turn three or four? Ramp, card draw, an early threat, or a clear path to casting your commander.

Your commander matters here. It starts in the command zone and is always available, so it's like an eighth card you're guaranteed to have. A hand of lands, ramp and one card-draw spell looks thin on paper, but if your commander is your main engine, that hand has a plan: ramp, cast the commander, go. The flip side is that the commander only helps if you can pay for it. A six-mana commander does nothing for a two-land hand with no ramp.

Example hands

These assume a typical 99-card library with 37 lands and about 10 ramp cards.

2 lands, Sol Ring, three spells costing 4 or more, and one other card

Keep. Sol Ring costs one and makes two colorless mana, so you can play it on turn one and have four mana on turn two. The danger is colors: your expensive spells still need colored mana, and only your two lands make it. If both lands make the colors your four-drops need, this is a strong keep. If they don't, it's still usually a keep, since you'll see more cards while Sol Ring carries you.

6 lands and 1 spell

Mulligan, especially when the first one is free. Your next few draws are mostly spells (about two of every three cards left in your library), but you're starting with a single action. You'll play a land and pass for several turns while everyone else develops. The exception is a commander that uses spare mana every turn, such as one with a repeatable activated ability. Then the lands are the plan, and the hand is fine.

1 land plus cheap card draw

Mulligan. A one-mana draw spell like Ponder or Preordain makes this tempting, but the odds are against it. With 37 lands, a one-lander finds its second land by turn two only about 63% of the time even if you draw on turn one, and has three lands by turn three only about 34% of the time. A free mulligan gives you a 75% chance of a fresh seven with two to four lands. That's a better bet.

2 lands, no ramp, several cheap spells

Usually keep, depending on your deck. A low-curve deck can operate on two or three lands for a while. A deck full of five- and six-drops can't. See the odds table below for how often a two-lander finds its third land in time.

2 lands that don't make your colors

Mulligan. A Plains and a Swamp with a hand of green ramp spells is effectively a zero-land hand. Count usable sources, not lands.

3 lands, a ramp spell, a two-drop and a card-draw spell

Keep immediately. This is the hand you're hoping for: land drops, a way to get ahead on mana, early action and something to refill your hand.

5 lands, your commander's colors, and two mid-cost spells

Usually keep. It's a little heavy, but you'll cast both spells and your commander on time. Five lands is a slower keep in a low-curve deck and a fine one in a deck full of expensive cards.

The numbers behind the keeps

All of these use the hypergeometric distribution, the math of drawing from a shuffled deck without replacement. Your library is 99 cards, since your commander starts in the command zone. Deckbuilding by the numbers explains the formula and why 37 to 38 lands is the usual starting point.

Lands in your opening seven

Lands in deck	At least 2 lands	At least 3 lands	At least 4 lands
35	78.2%	47.7%	19.8%
37	81.4%	52.5%	23.4%
38	82.9%	54.8%	25.2%
40	85.6%	59.4%	29.2%

Read the first column the other way round: at 37 lands, about one hand in five (18.6%) has zero or one land and is almost always a mulligan.

Will a two-land hand get there?

You kept two lands and five other cards, so 92 cards remain in your library, holding all but two of your lands. "On time" here counts only the cards you draw in your draw steps; any cheap card draw or ramp in your hand improves these odds.

Lands in deck	3rd land by turn 3 (2 draws)	3rd land by turn 3 (3 draws)	4th land by turn 4 (3 draws)	4th land by turn 4 (4 draws)
35	59.1%	74.1%	29.2%	45.3%
37	61.9%	76.7%	32.2%	49.2%
38	63.2%	77.9%	33.8%	51.1%
40	65.8%	80.2%	36.9%	54.9%

"2 draws" is the starting player when the first draw is skipped. "3 draws" is everyone else, and the starting player too in a standard multiplayer game under the official rules.

What this tells you:

• A two-lander hits its third land on time about three times in four when you draw on turn one. That's why most two-landers with cheap spells are keeps.
• It hits its fourth land on time only about half the time. If your hand needs four mana to function and has no ramp, it's weaker than it looks.
• Skipping the first draw costs you about 15 percentage points. The starting player should be a little stricter with two-landers if their table plays that way.

The one-land hand

With 37 lands and one in hand, you find a second land in your first two draws about 63% of the time, but have three lands by turn three only about 34% of the time (three draws). If the first draw is skipped, that falls to 15%. Compare that with the free mulligan: a fresh seven has two to four lands 75% of the time.

How much a mulligan actually costs

At 37 lands, a fresh seven has two to four lands about 75% of the time. Between your original seven, your free mulligan and, if needed, one more mulligan down to six (draw seven, bottom one), you end up with two to four lands about 99% of the time. The free mulligan is cheap insurance. Use it whenever your hand is genuinely bad, not just unexciting.

How your deck changes your keeps

The same hand can be a keep in one deck and a mulligan in another.

• Low curve: if most of your spells cost three or less, keep two-landers more readily and be wary of five- and six-landers.
• High curve or an expensive commander: you want three lands or two lands plus ramp. A two-lander whose cheapest useful play costs four is a gamble.
• Lots of ramp: count cheap ramp alongside lands, with a caveat: a mana rock still needs a land to cast it. Two lands plus Arcane Signet gives you at least three mana on turn three. One land plus Arcane Signet is a stuck hand.
• Three or more colors: check your sources carefully. Your fixing lands and cards like Command Tower or Arcane Signet carry these hands. Mana bases for Commander covers how many sources to play.
• Commander-centric decks: if your deck falls apart without its commander, prioritize hands that can cast it on time and protect it or rebuild after it's removed.
• Power level: in higher brackets, games end faster, so you need a fast start and a slow hand is a bigger liability. At a relaxed table, a slow but powerful hand has more time to come together.

Choosing what to put on the bottom

After your second mulligan, you'll bottom at least one card. Good candidates, in rough order:

• Lands beyond the fourth.
• Your most expensive spell, unless the hand is built around ramping into it.
• Situational cards: a board wipe on turn one, or removal for a threat nobody has yet.
• Duplicate effects, like a second card-draw spell when you only have mana for one.

Keep ramp, cheap interaction and anything that helps you cast your commander.

Mulligan etiquette at casual tables

• Know the table's rules. The free first mulligan is standard in multiplayer. Many groups go further: a free redraw for a hand with zero, one, six or seven lands, or extra free mulligans for everyone. That's fine as long as it's agreed during the pre-game talk. Rule 0 covers how to bring it up.
• Decide promptly. A minute of thought is fair. Five minutes of agonizing holds up three other people.
• Shuffle properly. Every mulligan shuffles your hand back in. Give it a real shuffle and offer a cut. "Mana weaving" (alternating lands and spells before shuffling) doesn't make your deck any more random.
• Don't keep a hand you know is dead. A one-land keep that never gets going isn't just bad for you; it leaves the table a player short for most of the game.

Practice before game night

In the Podtable deck builder, open your deck and use Test hand to deal sample openers. Deal ten, decide keep or mulligan for each, and see how often you'd ship. If it's more than two or three, look at your land and ramp counts. When you play online, the mulligan screen lets you keep or mulligan and choose which cards go on the bottom, so you can practice the real decision.

The official rules are in Wizards of the Coast's Comprehensive Rules, rule 103 (starting the game). If this guide and the official rules ever disagree, the official rules win.

Next: Deckbuilding by the numbers · Mana bases for Commander · Card advantage, ramp and tempo